Its Now or Never: How we can Save the Planet and Ourselves

We are on the cusp of the collapse of civilization.  Time is growing perilously short but key events in the coming year could put us on track to deal with the multiple interconnected crises we face.  To all but the willfully ignorant there is more than ample scientific evidence to indicate that we are facing a biodiversity crisis and a climate emergency.  We are getting dangerously close to the upper threshold temperature limit agreed to in Paris (1.5 - 2.0 degrees C below preindustrial norms) so we must act quickly. As Maxx Dilley, director of climate services at the World Meteorological Organization told AP, "any delay just diminishes the window within which there will still be time to reverse these trends and to bring the temperature back down into those limits".

In a Time article Justin Worland says that from where we stand today 2020 may seem like the year "an unknown virus spun out of control, killed hundreds of thousands and altered the way we live day to day," but in the future we may see 2020 as "the year we decided to keep driving off the climate cliff–or to take the last exit." The physics of climate change require us to cut emissions in half by 2030. That breaks down to 7.6 percent every year for the next decade. This is roughly equivalent to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions cut by the coronavirus this year

Events in China and the EU will play a significant role in determining whether we effectively respond to the climate crises. China has begun drafting its next five year plan (FYP), this top-level policy blueprint has been called, "one of the most important documents on the planet" for global sustainability. The 14th FYP which includes a power sector plan is expected to be made public next year. This year the EU is also implementing its carbon border mechanism which will impose taxes on imports from countries who are not doing enough to address climate change.  Advocates of such a tax hope that it will be the first wave in what may become a global effort to ensure that all nations do their part to manage the climate crisis.

The 2018 report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that allowing the planet to warm any more than 2°C above preindustrial levels would drive hundreds of millions of people into poverty, destroy coral reefs and leave some countries unable to adapt. Even more devastating, feedback loops could trip tipping points from which we may not be able to recover. This includes the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the thawing of Arctic permafrost

A NASA study suggests that to avoid collapse we will need to reach a sustainable steady state beneath the Earth's maximum carrying capacity.  We will also need to distribute resources equitably, eneact policies to reduce economic inequality and preserve natural resources. A June 2020 studyon species loss warns that their results "reemphasize the extreme urgency of taking massive global actions to save humanity’s crucial life-support systems."

Technological solutions are a key part of a low carbon economy and vital effort to to siphon carbon out of the atmosphere. However, technological sophistication is not guarantee that we will be able to adapt to unanticipated threats. Indeed the technology itself can be a threat.

Umair Haque calls us to invest in nature, "Do it now. Do it like  never before in history. Put aside your stupid squabbles, and your pointless pursuits. Put down the remote control, the phone, the drug, the fix. You are here on planet earth."

Preparing for permanent emissions reductions can make this the year of our revival rather than the year that marks our extinction. We have to cut emissions in half by 2030. That breaks down to 7.6 percent every year for the next decade. This is roughly equivalent to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions cut by the coronavirus this year. To do this we need to move quickly away from fossil fuels and this will require massive investments in renewable energy, and sustainable transportation. 

Simply put f we continue to rely on the old energy economy we are done. We have a choice to make we can either change or return to our perilous pre-corona course.  2020 is our last best chance, as Worland explains, "there’s no more time to wait. We’re standing at a climate crossroads....What we do now will define the fate of the planet–and human life on it–for decades". In a BBC article Luke Kemp, an historian who studies fallen civilizations said,

"The collapse of our civilisation is not inevitable. History suggests it is likely, but we have the unique advantage of being able to learn from the wreckages of societies past."  Kemp reviews what needs to be done to avert a collapse: "We know what needs to be done: emissions can be reduced, inequalities levelled, environmental degradation reversed, innovation unleashed and economies diversified. The policy proposals are there. Only the political will is lacking. We can also invest in recovery. There are already well-developed ideas for improving the ability of food and knowledge systems to be recuperated after catastrophe. Avoiding the creation of dangerous and widely-accessible technologies is also critical. Such steps will lessen the chance of a future collapse becoming irreversible. We will only march into collapse if we advance blindly. We are only doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past."

At present we are not doing anywhere near enough to reduce emissions and if we don't act soon it will be too late. To address climate change and slow environmental degradation we need to get radically efficient, stop deforestation, switch to a plant-based diet and most importantly reduce and eventually eliminate fossil fuels and decarbonising the energy supply. Worland sees COVID-19 as both the most significant post-war disruption to fossil fuels and a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to change direction". The virus has exposed fault lines but it could also serve as a catalyst to augur a paradigm change.

The shutdown associated with the coronavirus radically decreased emissions, however, a post-lockdown surge in activity could imperil hopes of keeping temperatures below the upper threshold limit.  While the coronavirus shutdown caused CO2 emissions to decrease by a global average of 17 percent in April, they are surging again.This has prompted International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol to warn that the world has six months to avert a climate crisis. "This year is the last time we have, if we are not to see a carbon rebound," Birol said.

The next year will be critical for the future of humanity. Three critical summits that were scheduled to take place in 2020 have been postponed until 2021 (the high-level Ocean Conference that was scheduled to take place in Lisbon, the Biodiversity Summit in Kunming and the COP 26 climate summit in Glasgow). This may be a godsend as the single most important event in 2020 may be the U.S. presidential election on November 3rd 2020. The fact that these 3 summits have been postponed until 2021 affords an opportunity to elect a new federal government in the U.S. which would go a long way towards building a global consensus to act on these key fronts.  

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